A Series of Export Problems

Defensenews.com published a piece today on the collapsed state of Russian defense exports to China, citing an independent Russian paper.

"From a situation where 40 percent of Russian earnings from arms exports came from China, “recently exports to China of our military equipment and weapons have dropped almost to zero,” the paper said."

This is only the latest in a series of recent export contract alarms. In the last year, India has been battling the Russians over contracts for upgraded Il-38s, Kilo subs and the enormous Gorshkov/Vikramaditya aircraft carrier project.

The general trend indicates serious problems with the Russian defense export industry, in terms of both technological capability and business management. Perhaps the same problems can in part explain the difficulties in equipping Russia's own military - even when the government is able and willing to pay.

It will be interesting to see what kind of impact the recent defense industry restructuring plans (1, 2) might have on these issues.

GLONASS Update

Russia conducted GLONASS launches in October and December 2007, each putting 3 GLONASS-M satellites into orbit. More info at russianforces.org.

As of today, the GLONASS constellation includes 16 satellites - 15 operational and 1 wating activation. For future reference, see the Russian Space Agency Information-Analytical Center.

In related news, Sergei Ivanov, having drummed up GLONASS throughout 2007, has come down with harsh criticism against Roscosmos (the Russian space agency) for failing to deliver on the expectations for the system. RIA News.

Russia's Position on the CFE Treaty

Beyond mentioning the fact that Russia withdrew from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty in 2007, most Western media outlets fail to explain the action. Naturally, Russia has its own perspective and reasons for the move. Although not serious analyses, here are some sources that at least lay out the arguments:
News report by Russia Today
Summary on Wikipedia
Essay on The Accidental Russophile

Russia's Position on Kosovo

An interesting analysis of Russia's position on Kosovo, published on 12/18/07 at Friedman Writes Back.

"We expect the West to postpone independence again, and to keep postponing it. But the Albanians might force the issue by declaring unilateral independence. The Russians would actually be delighted to see this. But here is the basic fact: For the United States and its allies, Kosovo is a side issue of no great importance. For the Russians, it is both a hot-button issue and a strategic opportunity. The Russians won’t roll over this time. And the asymmetry of perceptions is what crises are made of."

Also, check out a more recent, free sample of the article on the same topic by Jane's.

Gowing Against the Grain

Here are a couple of recent articles that challenge commonly voiced opinions on Russia's growing strength.

The first article, published on 01/22/08 at Friedman Writes Back, argues against viewing Russia as a consolidating supplier of Europe's energy needs. In fact, the author believes this view is an illusion or even a European calculation. Accordingly, Russia will eventually realize it's failure and may be pushed into a corner, forced to take hardline action.

The second article, published in the January/February issue of Foreign Affairs, argues against the notion that Putin's authoritarian politics and economic reforms are responsible for creating stability and prosperity in Russia. The author believes in the opposite - that whatever benefits have befallen Russia in recent years, they have nothing to do with Putin's policies and would in fact have been greater in a more democratic system.

Attempt #2

Bear Rising gets about 5-6 hits per day and I'm not even sure how many of those are real people. Given the low turnout and a number of contributing factors (holidays, family illness, vacation travel), I've had the project on the back burner for four months now. In fact, it's been on break twice as long as it was active, which is embarrassing. Worse, a lot of significant events have passed in this time. To name a few just from memory: Putin "endorsed" a successor, Russia withdrew from the CFE treaty, more GLONASS satellites went up, , ICBMs were tested, upgraded SSBNs were returned to service, the Navy sailed to the Mediterranean, the Air Force received some new aircraft.

I am making another go at keeping up with the news, but having now experienced one break, I want to apologize ahead of time for the next one. Your interest, however, is very appreciated.