2008-2010 Defense Budget

Realeconomy.ru (Russian link), citing Interfax, reported on 09/11/07 on the planned defense budget for the 2008-2010 period. Like the federal budget, the defense budget will allocate resources for a three-year period. According to Sergei Ivanov, First Deputy Prime-Minister, the emphasis for this budget will be on long-term contracts, with a lot of attention given to making the procurement process more effective, efficient, reliable and transparent.

The Military-Industrial Complex is a Priority

In a speech to the Russian Parliament, Viktor Zubkov, recently confirmed as Prime Minister, said that, "I believe it is absolutely correct to concentrate the cabinet's efforts on the growth of such traditionally strong national specialties as the aviation and maritime industries. [...] Another strategic objective - to lift our military-industrial complex. The budget allocates resources for this."

Reuters has a report on the speech.

In related news (pun intended), the Russian Defense Minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, resigned from duty because of his family ties to the new Prime Minister.

A Flying Air Force

As a general note, there are many official and spotter reports of increased flying activity on Russian airbases. Three examples:

On 09/14/2007, the Ministry of Defense (Russian link) reported on the full flying schedule at the Dzemgi airbase, home of the upgraded Su-27SMs.

"All Su-27SM upgraded airframes are in the air, each one numerous times for each flight rotation, of which there are four per week."

In an earlier report, on 09/04/2007, the MoD (Russian link) reported on the inspection of the 67th attack regiment, flying Su-24Ms out of Siverskiy-2 airbase in the Leningrad district.

"During the inspection, the regiment was brought up on alarm, about 20 armed Su-24 aircraft flew to one of the target ranges of the Voronezh district, conducted strikes against ground targets and landed at a divert airbase in the Voronezh district, where the pilots were given a new assignment.

Personnel prepared, refueled and rearmed the aircraft for the new mission and conducted a flight to another range in the Voronezh district for another successful strike against ground targets and a return to the home base in the Leningrad district."

Realeconomy.ru (Russian link), citing Interfax, reported on 09/13/07 on the first in-service flights of Su-34s at the Lipetsk flight training center.

"During the first training flights on the Su-34, pilots practiced take-off and landing, simple and advanced maneuvering and combat employment on the center's combat range with use of the targeting systems and gun cameras against ground and airborne targets."

Note, despite the use of "combat employment," the above implies that pilots were training with use of the targeting systems, not actually employing any weapons.

Training on the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets

The Russian Baltic and Black Sea fleets are conducting training maneuvers as part of the summer training season.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports (Russian link) on the training exercises conducted by the Baltic Fleet starting August 28th.

"The maneuvers...included about 7500 servicemen, 38 naval vessels and support ships, almost 50 armored combat vehicles, 16 fixed wing aircraft and 8 helicopters, as well as air defense assets."

The exercise culminated with a 300-marine beach landing and also included rocket (missile?) fire, artillery fire, mine laying and submarine operations with torpedo firings.

A Russian news report on the exercise can be found here.

The Back Sea Fleet is scheduled to conduct its own maneuvers from September 14th to the 22nd. According to the MoD, these are to include about 20 combat ships, naval aviation, 10 support ships, over 300 marines and 100 shore combat vehicles.

Building Up GLONASS

Lenta.ru (Russian link), citing ARMS-TASS, reports that GLONASS, the Russian space-based global positioning system, will become fully operational before the end of the year.

"By the end of 2007, the number of functional satellites for the GLONASS system will be brought to 18, which will allow to provide coverage of the greater part of the earth, including all of Russia. Next year, the number of satellites is planned to be increased to 24, which will provide global coverage.

Currently, GLONASS satellites are being replaced with GLONASS-M devices, which increase the service life from three to seven years. Later, the constellation will utilize GLONASS-K devices, with a 10-year service life.

The Russian satellite navigation system will be used for both military and civilian purposes - in early 2007, the Ministry of Defense lifted restrictions for use of GLONASS data for commerical purposes."

As further reference, see the official satellite navigation information center of Roscosmos (Russian federal space agency).

New Commander for the Navy

RIA News reports that Admiral Masorin, who has been commanding the Russian Navy since September 2005, has been dismissed due to reaching retirement age. Admiral Vladimir Visotskiy, formerly commander of the Northern Fleet, has been appointed as the new commander.

Here's a Russian news link with a photo of Admiral Visotskiy.

Let the Games Begin!

Russians are set to vote in parliamentary elections this December and presidential elections in March 2008. For the past year, political analysts have been guessing in vain about Vladimir Putin's intentions. Whatever happens, it is generally agreed that a full withdrawal from power, or at least influence, is not one of the options.

In a move still defying confident analysis, Putin dismissed his entire cabinet on September 12th and appointed a new Prime Minister, Viktor Zubkov - a name previously unknown in Russian politics.

The same evening, Putin held a Q&A session with representatives of Western media and academics, something he's done numerous times in the past. The Times was present at the meeting and their article on it is available here. I'll quote the part dealing with the cabinet's dismissal:

"He began by defending his choice and timing of a new prime minister, which stunned Russia this week, saying that he had to change the Government now because people had begun to cast around for other jobs in anticipation of change.

He said it was not his idea but that of Mikhael Fradkov, the former Prime Minister, to dissolve the Cabinet and reform the Government under a different leadership. Mr Putin praised both the outgoing Prime Minister and his successor, Viktor Zubkov, who he said had a fine record of service. He said the 65-year-old new Prime Minister might himself want to run for president, just as Mr Putin did when appointed Prime Minister in 1999, but he would first have to prove himself."

Strangely, The Times reports that Putin "all but ruled out" a return to power in 2012. At the same time, BBC's report on the meeting says, "...he did not rule out standing again for president in 2012 or 2016..." Lost in translation?

Pacific Fleet trains in the Sea of Japan

The Russian MoD reported (Russian link) today on training maneuvers being conducted by the Pacific Fleet in the Sea of Japan.

"The Pacific Fleet Maritime Flotilla is conducting training exercises in the Sea of Japan utilizing frigates, submarines and long-range aircraft. The exercises include more than twenty surface vessels, submarines, support vessels, as well as naval aviation crews. The training in southern Primorye waters will become the most extended and extensive of the maneuvers conducted here in the past.

Frigates will be tasked with detecting an OPFOR submarine and conducting simulated torpedo attacks. Anti-Submarine Warfare fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters will participate in this operation. Submarine crews will be tasked with silently approaching surface vessels and "attacking" them from the depths. They will also conduct practical torpedo firing in a dueling situation. The exercise will culminate in unique missile engagements against brand new high speed target drones, conducted by the frigates Admiral Panteleyev and Admiral Tributs."

U.S. Missile Defense - Concerns and Alternatives

Russianforces.org has published a very insightful report made to the U.S. Congress on the technical merits of the proposed U.S. missile defense systems in eastern Europe. It explains some of the Russian concerns over it and presents potential alternatives.

Bomber Bits

The Russian MoD (Russian link) reported on 8/27/07 that the Air Force is upgrading its Tu-22M3 bombers.

"The Russian Air Force is currently undertaking a deep modernization of the Tu-22M3 long-range bomber...

"Tu-22M3 long-range bombers are designed to employ missiles as well as conventional bombs. But precise bombing requires new targeting equipment. As such, the modernization of the targeting equipment, the missile employment equipment and a deep modernization of these aircraft is underway."

In a separate report (Russian link) on the same day, it was announced that Russian bombers do not carry any weapons during their patrols.

"Only training munitions are aboard our aircraft, allowing us to carry out all of the training objectives. We are conducting air patrols, not combat patrols."

Another quote from the same report:

"Only in the last few months, flight activity has increased 2.5-3 times. This has made it possible to reduce the time required to prepare flight commanders. The average commander age is 35-36 years old, the average flight time amounts to 80 hours per year - and this is considering the current year is not yet over."

Su-24M2 Upgrades?

Lenta.ru (Russian link) reported during MAKS-2007 that the Russian Air Force plans on upgrading all of its Su-24s to Su-24M2 standards. However, the news piece does not include an original source, technical details or contactors involved, which lends the report questionable credibility. The fact that the Air Force is pursuing such an upgrade is well established, but its current status is unclear.

In general, the M2 upgrade has been described as including modernization of the navigation and weapons control systems and expanding the list of usable munitions. At least 4 airframes are reported (Russian link) to have been received by the Russian Air Force (in December of 2006, along with the first two Su-34s).

Big Plans for the Russian Navy

Over the course of the last few months, Admiral Vladimir Masorin, appointed commander of the Russian Navy in September 2005, has made a number of announcements to formulate an ambitious plan that aims to build the world's second largest fleet by the 2020-2030 time frame. Plans call for new infrastructure for building and basing of both surface vessels and submarines, implementing a fully professional, contracted personnel force, building of new training facilities and, of course, construction of new combat vessels, including aircraft carrier groups for the Pacific and Northern fleets and next generation strategic and multipurpose submarines. Naval development has secured a 25% share of the State Armament Program financing through 2015, granting it equal status to the strategic forces.

A list of specific items announced:

- A new submarine base for the Pacific Fleet's 'Borei' class boats in Vilnuchinsk. This year's budget appropriated 9bn rub. toward this and construction is expected to be completed in 2-3 years (Barents Observer)

- A new base to round up all of the Pacific Fleet's surface vessels in Avachinskaya Bay of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. Planned to be completed "in the next few years"

- Construction of a new base for the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossyisk. This project has also received financing (reports range from 12.9bn to 40bn rub.) and is underway, with completion expected by 2012. (RIA News)

- Construction of a domestic "NITKA" training facility for Russian carrier aviation "in the near future" (RIA News)

- Building of a new construction dock in Severodvinsk for construction of large-tonnage vessels, such as aircraft carriers (RIA News)

- Initial construction of new aircraft carriers after 2015, to ultimately operate six carrier groups, three in the Pacific and three in the Northern fleets. The carriers are to be in the 50,000 tonne class and operate approximately 30 fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft. Each fleet is to maintain one group at sea, one in preparation and one in maintenance.

- Expand Russia's presence in the Mediterranean Sea (RIA News)

- Production of up to 8 'Borei' class nuclear ballistic missile submarines. The first of these, the Yuri Dolgorukiy, was launched on April 15th, 2007. The next two are currently under construction. The boats are to be armed with 16 Bulava ICBMs (12 for the Yuri Dolgorukiy) (Defense News)

- Production of an unknown number of "Yasen'" (Project 885) class multipurpose submarines. At least one is now nearing completion.

- Production of various classes of new and upgraded surface combatants

- Entry into service of the RSM-54 "Sineva" ballistic missile system for upgraded Delta-IV ballistic missile submarines on 6/9/07

A 7/31/07 RIA News opinion piece outlines most of the above plans in one article.

As further reading, I highly recommend the "Information Dissemination" blog.

Also, a stratfor analysis on the role of the Black Sea Fleet is available.

Air Force Celebrations

On August 11th, the Russian Air Force celebrated its 95th birthday over Monino and the week prior, on the 4th, the 16th Air Army celebrated its own birthday over Kubinka. Naturally, both events received a lot of attention from Russian aviation photographers. Some highlights from the August 11th flying courtesy of Leha's Blog on strizhi.ru:









More photo galleries: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Video montage by RIA News.

A short video clip and a few photos here.

Some highlights of the August 4th flying over Kubinka, once again from Leha's Blog:





Other large photo albums of the event: 1, 2 and 3.

More on Russian Aviation Industry Restructuring

Vedomosti reported today on further consolidation plans in Russia. Announced at the Session on the Development of the Aviation Engine Industry, held in Saint Petersburg and attended by Vladimir Putin yesterday, the government is undertaking steps to integrate the various companies involved in the production of aircraft engines. A rough English overview can be found on RIA News.

Current plans call for the creation of four holding companies that would each consolidate the various entities invovled in engine development and production for the major suppliers. As such, they are to be headed by Salut, Klimov, Kuznetsov and Saturn, respectively. Of these, the first is practically complete and the second is underway. There are doubts if the third and fourth will succeed, for financial and legal reasons.

Whatever the specific sector, the consolidation schemes are generally similar. Essentially, the Russian government buys large or controlling shares in the various industry companies, whether maritime, aviation, nuclear, etc. It then creates a new entity, for which the majority capital is formed with the government's shares in the companies integrated in the new entity.

Restructuring of Russian Aviation Industry

Created in February 2006 and officially registered in November of the same year, the United Aircraft Building Corporation (UABC) is a reform of the Russian aviation industry currently focused on resurrecting the collapsed civilian airliner industry in Russia. Encompassing nearly every major "player" in the industry, its effects on military production and export haven't been clearly defined yet, but can be expected to be significant.

A brief overview of the company is available on wikipedia (English).

A more detailed description is available in Russian on realeconomy.ru (official government information portal for issues on development of industry, transportation and technology).

A quote:

"As a result of the work conducted [on determining the demand for aircraft produced by member companies of UABC in the domestic and international markets], a plan for aircraft production was developed and confirmed for the 2008-2012 period, including the Il-96 family - 15 units, Tu-204/214 - 84 units, SSJ-100/Tu-334 - 236 units, as well as An-148 - 96 units."

The move has come under considerable criticism of centralization and monopolization. The English-language opinion piece by RIA News on 2/9/07 weights both sides of the argument.

It should be noted that similar reforms are under way for the ship-building industry and the atomic energy industry.

State Armament Program 2007-2015

In November 2006, the Russian government approved the State Armament Program for 2007-2015. According to missiles.ru, "for the first time in the history of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, the State Armament Program provides for batch orders for equipping units and subunits, rather than individual item procurement."

-

A more detailed overview of the program based on publicly released information is available on wikipedia.

Some quotes:

"The total amount allocated to financing {this program} throughout its duration will be 4 trillion 939 billion 400 million rubles {measured in 2006 rates, EB}."

"According to the vice chairman of the {military-industrial} commission, colonel-general Vladislav Putilin, the State Armament Program includes batch provisions for about 200 major and sub-units, purchase of over 3000 and modernization and special maintenance of about 5000 individual arms items and military and special equipment.

By 2015, regular troop forces equipped with new and modernized models will include 40 tank battalions (1400 tanks), 22 of which will be with new tanks, 97 motorized rifle and 50 airborne battalions (4109 BMPs and BMDs, 3008 BTRs of all types), five missile brigades (60 Iskander missile systems), 9 air defense units (18 batteries of S-400 SAM systems), two rocket regiments - upgraded with Uragan-1M MLRS systems. 116,000 vehicles will be purchased. Purchasing of general communication equipment is planned to supply 123 major units and subunits..."

"The armed forces will be supplied with 116 new and 408 modernized frontal {tactical, EB} aircraft, 156 new and 372 modernized combat helicopters, 34 new and 159 modernized long-range aircraft. Supply of about 100 Sukhoi combat aircraft and modernization of a large part of aircraft currently in service with the Air Force is provided, specifically engine replacement of 14 Il-76MDs to PS-90 engines. 50 strategic bombers are planned to be in service (Tu-160, Tu-95MS). Over 60bn rub. is allocated by the program for development and production of future airborne munitions. Major efforts will be concentrated on development of electronic components, rocket engines, creation of electro-optical matrix homing systems, multi-mode seeker heads and other aviation munition elements.

Naval combat units will incorporate 2 multirole nuclear submarines, 4 diesel submarines, 12 surface vessels and 5 corvettes of various types. Series production and scheduled introduction into service of 5-8 project 955/955A SSBNs is planned."

"By 2015, the number of combat-ready major units and subunits is planned to increase to 600. In total, the State Armament Program provides for the replacement of about 45% of currently used combat gear."

"As known so far, the program includes procurement of the following new equipment:

STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES:
-5-8 SSBNs
-34 silo launch systems and command centers, as well as 66 ground-mobile Topol-M systems.

GROUND FORCES:
-22 tank battalions (~680 tanks)
-60 Iskander-M tactical missile systems
-18 batteries of S-400 SAM systems
-1 regiment of short-range Pantsir-S1 SAM systems (by other reports - 400 systems)
-2 rocket regiments upgraded with Uragan-1M MLRS systems
-116,000 vehicles

AIR FORCE:
-58 Su-34 strike aircraft (two in 2006, six in 2007, ten in 2008. Further on, it is planned to produce 8-10 Su-34s per year)
-67 Mi-28N combat helicopters
-12 Ka-50 combat helicopters
-10 Tu-204/Tu-214
-60 Yak-130
-4 Il-76MF
-18 Il-112V

AIRBORNE TROOPS:
-57 self-propelled Sprut-SD anti-tank platforms
-499 Rakushka APCs

NAVY:
Total supply of 31 ships, including SSBNs
-2 multirole nuclear submarines
-4 diesel submarines
-12 surface combatants
-5 corvettes of various types
-few Bereg shore-based self-propelled artillery units

SPACE FORCES:
-deployment of space-based integrated system of satellite communications and transmition consisting of numerous space vehicles
-Development of new space reconnaissance systems, topographical surveying, detection of ballistic missile launches and control
-completing construction of Angara and Soyuz-2 launching systems"

Russian Defense Budget for 2007

ARMS-TASS reported on 11/16/2006 on the planned Russian defense budget:

"For 2007, over 820bn rub. is allocated for appropriations for national defense... Of this, over 300bn rub. will go toward equipping the armed forces."

-

Citing the Russian Federal Agency of Industry, missiles.ru provided more details on 4/24/07:

"In 2007, 302.7 billion rubles will be spent on purchases for the Ministry of Defense - 27.8% more than in 2006 {when adjusted for inflation, the per cent growth is actually closer to 17%, according to russianforces.org, EB}.

It is planned to purchase 17 ballistic missiles, including seven Topol-Ms, four launch boosters and an equal amount of military satellites, six Su-34 bombers, five Mi-28N helicopters, 31 T-90 tanks, 10 BMD-4s, about 100 BTR-80s, one S-400 SAM battery, 2000 Kamaz vehicles and other equipment. Over half of the resources (145bn rub.) will be spent on purchasing new arms, 60bn rub. - on modernization and 97.7bn rub. - on research and development."

The Almighty Ruble

Published in the New York Times on 8/6/07, this is a great article to begin this project with. It covers the increasing financial strength of the ruble as a national and international currency. Of special note is the discussion of intelligent macroeconomic practices of the Kremlin, building of large monetary reserves and increasing inflow of foreign capital, as well as diversification of Russian financial interests away from the dominant reliance on "petrorubles," something the country has been heavily criticized for under the Putin administration. Also, the article provides a useful perspective on Russia today as compared to the 1990s.

Some quotes:

"Together with the Central Bank of Russia’s foreign reserves, Russian authorities have a currency reserve of $413 billion, the largest per capita foreign currency reserve of any major economy, including China’s. In an oil downturn, authorities could spend that reserve to protect the ruble."

"...oil exports are not the sole source of the ruble’s rise. That was the case before 2007, but now foreign investment has become a significant factor. Private capital flows into Russia increased roughly 360 percent in the first six months of this year, compared with the same period last year. Only about 30 percent is attributable to oil and other extractive industries, according to the State Statistics Committee."

"Starting in 1990, the year the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia’s economy contracted by as much as 40 percent. This year, for the first time since, Russia’s gross domestic product returned to 1990 levels: factories, oil pipelines, roads, ports and other facilities that once were idled are operating near full capacity."

"In the first six months of this year, net private capital inflow into Russia was $67.1 billion — more than during the entire first decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the same period last year, capital inflow was $14.5 billion."

The full article can be found here:
NY Times - The Almighty Ruble

START

Welcome to Bear Rising, a blog designed to track Russian military and related economic developments.

Much of the everyday news in the ever more frequent military events in Russia are not easily available to non-Russian speakers. I will attempt to provide a source of quick updates on relevant events by translating, summarizing and linking to news and analysis articles of interest.

When possible, my second goal is to provide 'the Russian perspective' on international political and military events as presented by the Russian media and authorities.

This blog has no political motives. I neither advocate nor defend Russian government policy. My only goal is to provide a source of information to the English speaker as made available in Russian media outlets. What conclusions a reader draws from this information is outside of the interests of this enterprise.