2/11/08

Strategic Implications of the Mediterranean Cruise

Information Dissemination has an interesting analysis of the possible long-term strategic implications of the Russian naval cruise to the Mediterranean. As announced last year, Russia plans on building the world's second largest naval force in the 2020-2030 time frame, including numerous aircraft carriers for the Pacific and Northern fleets. Contrary to popular opinion, Information Dissemination believes such a force is required less for a potential military confrontation with the U.S., but more for economic accessibility to forward markets in a globalized economy. An excerpt:

"The exercises involved the fighter aviation forces onboard the Admiral Kuznetsov in escort of the long range, land based Tu-160 bomber forces at the point of attack. This demonstration highlights that the Russian military has retained the military capability of forward strike, and given the distances involved, is a military capability beyond that of every nation in the world with one exception, the United States.

From a strategic perspective, long range bomber sorties from Russia guarded at the point of attack by forward deployed CV aviation is an enormous capability. With the military option of forward strike supported by sea power comes an option unique to super powers, the ability of Russia for military intervention in forward locations.

...

This will give Russia the capability to emerge in [the future] as a major military power in a world influenced heavily by the rapid expansion of globalization. The purpose of building these military capabilities is not, as some contend, to compete against the United States as a military power in forward markets, rather emerge instead as an alternative to US military power in forward markets. In that context we see long term plans for expanding Russian carrier based naval aviation, which is defensive in nature per doctrine, aligned within the scope of Russia's strategic goals for economic influence in forward markets."