A Series of Export Problems

Defensenews.com published a piece today on the collapsed state of Russian defense exports to China, citing an independent Russian paper.

"From a situation where 40 percent of Russian earnings from arms exports came from China, “recently exports to China of our military equipment and weapons have dropped almost to zero,” the paper said."

This is only the latest in a series of recent export contract alarms. In the last year, India has been battling the Russians over contracts for upgraded Il-38s, Kilo subs and the enormous Gorshkov/Vikramaditya aircraft carrier project.

The general trend indicates serious problems with the Russian defense export industry, in terms of both technological capability and business management. Perhaps the same problems can in part explain the difficulties in equipping Russia's own military - even when the government is able and willing to pay.

It will be interesting to see what kind of impact the recent defense industry restructuring plans (1, 2) might have on these issues.

GLONASS Update

Russia conducted GLONASS launches in October and December 2007, each putting 3 GLONASS-M satellites into orbit. More info at russianforces.org.

As of today, the GLONASS constellation includes 16 satellites - 15 operational and 1 wating activation. For future reference, see the Russian Space Agency Information-Analytical Center.

In related news, Sergei Ivanov, having drummed up GLONASS throughout 2007, has come down with harsh criticism against Roscosmos (the Russian space agency) for failing to deliver on the expectations for the system. RIA News.

Russia's Position on the CFE Treaty

Beyond mentioning the fact that Russia withdrew from the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty in 2007, most Western media outlets fail to explain the action. Naturally, Russia has its own perspective and reasons for the move. Although not serious analyses, here are some sources that at least lay out the arguments:
News report by Russia Today
Summary on Wikipedia
Essay on The Accidental Russophile

Russia's Position on Kosovo

An interesting analysis of Russia's position on Kosovo, published on 12/18/07 at Friedman Writes Back.

"We expect the West to postpone independence again, and to keep postponing it. But the Albanians might force the issue by declaring unilateral independence. The Russians would actually be delighted to see this. But here is the basic fact: For the United States and its allies, Kosovo is a side issue of no great importance. For the Russians, it is both a hot-button issue and a strategic opportunity. The Russians won’t roll over this time. And the asymmetry of perceptions is what crises are made of."

Also, check out a more recent, free sample of the article on the same topic by Jane's.

Gowing Against the Grain

Here are a couple of recent articles that challenge commonly voiced opinions on Russia's growing strength.

The first article, published on 01/22/08 at Friedman Writes Back, argues against viewing Russia as a consolidating supplier of Europe's energy needs. In fact, the author believes this view is an illusion or even a European calculation. Accordingly, Russia will eventually realize it's failure and may be pushed into a corner, forced to take hardline action.

The second article, published in the January/February issue of Foreign Affairs, argues against the notion that Putin's authoritarian politics and economic reforms are responsible for creating stability and prosperity in Russia. The author believes in the opposite - that whatever benefits have befallen Russia in recent years, they have nothing to do with Putin's policies and would in fact have been greater in a more democratic system.

Attempt #2

Bear Rising gets about 5-6 hits per day and I'm not even sure how many of those are real people. Given the low turnout and a number of contributing factors (holidays, family illness, vacation travel), I've had the project on the back burner for four months now. In fact, it's been on break twice as long as it was active, which is embarrassing. Worse, a lot of significant events have passed in this time. To name a few just from memory: Putin "endorsed" a successor, Russia withdrew from the CFE treaty, more GLONASS satellites went up, , ICBMs were tested, upgraded SSBNs were returned to service, the Navy sailed to the Mediterranean, the Air Force received some new aircraft.

I am making another go at keeping up with the news, but having now experienced one break, I want to apologize ahead of time for the next one. Your interest, however, is very appreciated.

2008-2010 Defense Budget

Realeconomy.ru (Russian link), citing Interfax, reported on 09/11/07 on the planned defense budget for the 2008-2010 period. Like the federal budget, the defense budget will allocate resources for a three-year period. According to Sergei Ivanov, First Deputy Prime-Minister, the emphasis for this budget will be on long-term contracts, with a lot of attention given to making the procurement process more effective, efficient, reliable and transparent.

The Military-Industrial Complex is a Priority

In a speech to the Russian Parliament, Viktor Zubkov, recently confirmed as Prime Minister, said that, "I believe it is absolutely correct to concentrate the cabinet's efforts on the growth of such traditionally strong national specialties as the aviation and maritime industries. [...] Another strategic objective - to lift our military-industrial complex. The budget allocates resources for this."

Reuters has a report on the speech.

In related news (pun intended), the Russian Defense Minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, resigned from duty because of his family ties to the new Prime Minister.

A Flying Air Force

As a general note, there are many official and spotter reports of increased flying activity on Russian airbases. Three examples:

On 09/14/2007, the Ministry of Defense (Russian link) reported on the full flying schedule at the Dzemgi airbase, home of the upgraded Su-27SMs.

"All Su-27SM upgraded airframes are in the air, each one numerous times for each flight rotation, of which there are four per week."

In an earlier report, on 09/04/2007, the MoD (Russian link) reported on the inspection of the 67th attack regiment, flying Su-24Ms out of Siverskiy-2 airbase in the Leningrad district.

"During the inspection, the regiment was brought up on alarm, about 20 armed Su-24 aircraft flew to one of the target ranges of the Voronezh district, conducted strikes against ground targets and landed at a divert airbase in the Voronezh district, where the pilots were given a new assignment.

Personnel prepared, refueled and rearmed the aircraft for the new mission and conducted a flight to another range in the Voronezh district for another successful strike against ground targets and a return to the home base in the Leningrad district."

Realeconomy.ru (Russian link), citing Interfax, reported on 09/13/07 on the first in-service flights of Su-34s at the Lipetsk flight training center.

"During the first training flights on the Su-34, pilots practiced take-off and landing, simple and advanced maneuvering and combat employment on the center's combat range with use of the targeting systems and gun cameras against ground and airborne targets."

Note, despite the use of "combat employment," the above implies that pilots were training with use of the targeting systems, not actually employing any weapons.

Training on the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets

The Russian Baltic and Black Sea fleets are conducting training maneuvers as part of the summer training season.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports (Russian link) on the training exercises conducted by the Baltic Fleet starting August 28th.

"The maneuvers...included about 7500 servicemen, 38 naval vessels and support ships, almost 50 armored combat vehicles, 16 fixed wing aircraft and 8 helicopters, as well as air defense assets."

The exercise culminated with a 300-marine beach landing and also included rocket (missile?) fire, artillery fire, mine laying and submarine operations with torpedo firings.

A Russian news report on the exercise can be found here.

The Back Sea Fleet is scheduled to conduct its own maneuvers from September 14th to the 22nd. According to the MoD, these are to include about 20 combat ships, naval aviation, 10 support ships, over 300 marines and 100 shore combat vehicles.

Building Up GLONASS

Lenta.ru (Russian link), citing ARMS-TASS, reports that GLONASS, the Russian space-based global positioning system, will become fully operational before the end of the year.

"By the end of 2007, the number of functional satellites for the GLONASS system will be brought to 18, which will allow to provide coverage of the greater part of the earth, including all of Russia. Next year, the number of satellites is planned to be increased to 24, which will provide global coverage.

Currently, GLONASS satellites are being replaced with GLONASS-M devices, which increase the service life from three to seven years. Later, the constellation will utilize GLONASS-K devices, with a 10-year service life.

The Russian satellite navigation system will be used for both military and civilian purposes - in early 2007, the Ministry of Defense lifted restrictions for use of GLONASS data for commerical purposes."

As further reference, see the official satellite navigation information center of Roscosmos (Russian federal space agency).

New Commander for the Navy

RIA News reports that Admiral Masorin, who has been commanding the Russian Navy since September 2005, has been dismissed due to reaching retirement age. Admiral Vladimir Visotskiy, formerly commander of the Northern Fleet, has been appointed as the new commander.

Here's a Russian news link with a photo of Admiral Visotskiy.

Let the Games Begin!

Russians are set to vote in parliamentary elections this December and presidential elections in March 2008. For the past year, political analysts have been guessing in vain about Vladimir Putin's intentions. Whatever happens, it is generally agreed that a full withdrawal from power, or at least influence, is not one of the options.

In a move still defying confident analysis, Putin dismissed his entire cabinet on September 12th and appointed a new Prime Minister, Viktor Zubkov - a name previously unknown in Russian politics.

The same evening, Putin held a Q&A session with representatives of Western media and academics, something he's done numerous times in the past. The Times was present at the meeting and their article on it is available here. I'll quote the part dealing with the cabinet's dismissal:

"He began by defending his choice and timing of a new prime minister, which stunned Russia this week, saying that he had to change the Government now because people had begun to cast around for other jobs in anticipation of change.

He said it was not his idea but that of Mikhael Fradkov, the former Prime Minister, to dissolve the Cabinet and reform the Government under a different leadership. Mr Putin praised both the outgoing Prime Minister and his successor, Viktor Zubkov, who he said had a fine record of service. He said the 65-year-old new Prime Minister might himself want to run for president, just as Mr Putin did when appointed Prime Minister in 1999, but he would first have to prove himself."

Strangely, The Times reports that Putin "all but ruled out" a return to power in 2012. At the same time, BBC's report on the meeting says, "...he did not rule out standing again for president in 2012 or 2016..." Lost in translation?

Pacific Fleet trains in the Sea of Japan

The Russian MoD reported (Russian link) today on training maneuvers being conducted by the Pacific Fleet in the Sea of Japan.

"The Pacific Fleet Maritime Flotilla is conducting training exercises in the Sea of Japan utilizing frigates, submarines and long-range aircraft. The exercises include more than twenty surface vessels, submarines, support vessels, as well as naval aviation crews. The training in southern Primorye waters will become the most extended and extensive of the maneuvers conducted here in the past.

Frigates will be tasked with detecting an OPFOR submarine and conducting simulated torpedo attacks. Anti-Submarine Warfare fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters will participate in this operation. Submarine crews will be tasked with silently approaching surface vessels and "attacking" them from the depths. They will also conduct practical torpedo firing in a dueling situation. The exercise will culminate in unique missile engagements against brand new high speed target drones, conducted by the frigates Admiral Panteleyev and Admiral Tributs."

U.S. Missile Defense - Concerns and Alternatives

Russianforces.org has published a very insightful report made to the U.S. Congress on the technical merits of the proposed U.S. missile defense systems in eastern Europe. It explains some of the Russian concerns over it and presents potential alternatives.

Bomber Bits

The Russian MoD (Russian link) reported on 8/27/07 that the Air Force is upgrading its Tu-22M3 bombers.

"The Russian Air Force is currently undertaking a deep modernization of the Tu-22M3 long-range bomber...

"Tu-22M3 long-range bombers are designed to employ missiles as well as conventional bombs. But precise bombing requires new targeting equipment. As such, the modernization of the targeting equipment, the missile employment equipment and a deep modernization of these aircraft is underway."

In a separate report (Russian link) on the same day, it was announced that Russian bombers do not carry any weapons during their patrols.

"Only training munitions are aboard our aircraft, allowing us to carry out all of the training objectives. We are conducting air patrols, not combat patrols."

Another quote from the same report:

"Only in the last few months, flight activity has increased 2.5-3 times. This has made it possible to reduce the time required to prepare flight commanders. The average commander age is 35-36 years old, the average flight time amounts to 80 hours per year - and this is considering the current year is not yet over."

Su-24M2 Upgrades?

Lenta.ru (Russian link) reported during MAKS-2007 that the Russian Air Force plans on upgrading all of its Su-24s to Su-24M2 standards. However, the news piece does not include an original source, technical details or contactors involved, which lends the report questionable credibility. The fact that the Air Force is pursuing such an upgrade is well established, but its current status is unclear.

In general, the M2 upgrade has been described as including modernization of the navigation and weapons control systems and expanding the list of usable munitions. At least 4 airframes are reported (Russian link) to have been received by the Russian Air Force (in December of 2006, along with the first two Su-34s).

Big Plans for the Russian Navy

Over the course of the last few months, Admiral Vladimir Masorin, appointed commander of the Russian Navy in September 2005, has made a number of announcements to formulate an ambitious plan that aims to build the world's second largest fleet by the 2020-2030 time frame. Plans call for new infrastructure for building and basing of both surface vessels and submarines, implementing a fully professional, contracted personnel force, building of new training facilities and, of course, construction of new combat vessels, including aircraft carrier groups for the Pacific and Northern fleets and next generation strategic and multipurpose submarines. Naval development has secured a 25% share of the State Armament Program financing through 2015, granting it equal status to the strategic forces.

A list of specific items announced:

- A new submarine base for the Pacific Fleet's 'Borei' class boats in Vilnuchinsk. This year's budget appropriated 9bn rub. toward this and construction is expected to be completed in 2-3 years (Barents Observer)

- A new base to round up all of the Pacific Fleet's surface vessels in Avachinskaya Bay of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. Planned to be completed "in the next few years"

- Construction of a new base for the Black Sea Fleet at Novorossyisk. This project has also received financing (reports range from 12.9bn to 40bn rub.) and is underway, with completion expected by 2012. (RIA News)

- Construction of a domestic "NITKA" training facility for Russian carrier aviation "in the near future" (RIA News)

- Building of a new construction dock in Severodvinsk for construction of large-tonnage vessels, such as aircraft carriers (RIA News)

- Initial construction of new aircraft carriers after 2015, to ultimately operate six carrier groups, three in the Pacific and three in the Northern fleets. The carriers are to be in the 50,000 tonne class and operate approximately 30 fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft. Each fleet is to maintain one group at sea, one in preparation and one in maintenance.

- Expand Russia's presence in the Mediterranean Sea (RIA News)

- Production of up to 8 'Borei' class nuclear ballistic missile submarines. The first of these, the Yuri Dolgorukiy, was launched on April 15th, 2007. The next two are currently under construction. The boats are to be armed with 16 Bulava ICBMs (12 for the Yuri Dolgorukiy) (Defense News)

- Production of an unknown number of "Yasen'" (Project 885) class multipurpose submarines. At least one is now nearing completion.

- Production of various classes of new and upgraded surface combatants

- Entry into service of the RSM-54 "Sineva" ballistic missile system for upgraded Delta-IV ballistic missile submarines on 6/9/07

A 7/31/07 RIA News opinion piece outlines most of the above plans in one article.

As further reading, I highly recommend the "Information Dissemination" blog.

Also, a stratfor analysis on the role of the Black Sea Fleet is available.

Air Force Celebrations

On August 11th, the Russian Air Force celebrated its 95th birthday over Monino and the week prior, on the 4th, the 16th Air Army celebrated its own birthday over Kubinka. Naturally, both events received a lot of attention from Russian aviation photographers. Some highlights from the August 11th flying courtesy of Leha's Blog on strizhi.ru:









More photo galleries: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Video montage by RIA News.

A short video clip and a few photos here.

Some highlights of the August 4th flying over Kubinka, once again from Leha's Blog:





Other large photo albums of the event: 1, 2 and 3.

More on Russian Aviation Industry Restructuring

Vedomosti reported today on further consolidation plans in Russia. Announced at the Session on the Development of the Aviation Engine Industry, held in Saint Petersburg and attended by Vladimir Putin yesterday, the government is undertaking steps to integrate the various companies involved in the production of aircraft engines. A rough English overview can be found on RIA News.

Current plans call for the creation of four holding companies that would each consolidate the various entities invovled in engine development and production for the major suppliers. As such, they are to be headed by Salut, Klimov, Kuznetsov and Saturn, respectively. Of these, the first is practically complete and the second is underway. There are doubts if the third and fourth will succeed, for financial and legal reasons.

Whatever the specific sector, the consolidation schemes are generally similar. Essentially, the Russian government buys large or controlling shares in the various industry companies, whether maritime, aviation, nuclear, etc. It then creates a new entity, for which the majority capital is formed with the government's shares in the companies integrated in the new entity.